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Sodobni vojaški izzivi - leto 2019

DOI: 10.33179/BSV.99.SVI.11.CMC.21.3.0
Liliana Brožič
Uvodnik
PETNAJST LET V ZAVEZNIŠTVU

DOI: 10.33179/BSV.99.SVI.11.CMC.21.3.00
Liliana Brožič
EDITORIAL
FIFTEEN YEARS IN THE ALLIANCE

DOI: 10.33179/BSV.99.SVI.11.CMC.21.3.1

Boris Rutar
ZVEZA NATO KOT KOALICIJA (VOLJNIH)
THE NATO ALLIANCE AS A COALITION (OF THE WILLING)

Prispevek opisuje razliko med dvema konceptoma meddržavnega sodelovanja ob upoštevanju varnosti in njenega izvajanja v Natu. Avtor v prvem delu prispevka natančneje opiše razliko med vojaškim zavezništvom in vojaško koalicijo. Medtem ko je bistvena naloga zavezništva obramba, je koncept koalicije precej primernejši za začasne razmestitve zunaj lastnega ozemlja. V zvezi s tem avtor v drugem delu prispevka analizira preoblikovanje Nata in vpliv operacij kriznega odzivanja na dojemanje ter notranjo strukturo Natove moči. Sistem kriznega upravljanja in Natov koncept nosilne države sta temeljna primera, kako Nato deluje bolj kot koalicija, ne kot zavezništvo.
Ključne besede: Vojaško zavezništvo, vojaška koalicija, operacije kriznega odzivanja, koncept nosilne države.

The purpose of this article is to describe the difference between two intra-state concepts of cooperation with regard to security and its application in NATO. In the first part of the article the author elaborates the distinction between a military alliance and a military coalition. While an alliance is inherently defensive in nature, a coalition concept is much more suitable for ad hoc deployment outside its own territorial space. With regard to this, in the second part the author analyzes the transformation of the NATO Alliance and the impact that Crisis Response Operations have had on the perception and inner power structure of NATO. The Crisis Management System and the Framework Nation Concept are used as primary examples of NATO acting as a coalition rather than an alliance.
Keywords: Military alliance, military coalition, crisis response operations, Framework Nation Concept.

DOI: 10.33179/BSV.99.SVI.11.CMC.21.3.2

Viljar Veebel, Illimar Ploom
15 LET ČLANSTVA V NATU IN EU: ALI SO SI NACIONALNE VARNOSTNE STRATEGIJE IN OBRAMBNI MODELI BALTSKIH DRŽAV PODOBNI ALI SE RAZLIKUJEJO
15 YEARS OF NATO AND EU MEMBERSHIP: ARE THE BALTIC COUNTRIES SIMILAR OR DIFFERENT IN TERMS OF THEIR NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGIES AND DEFENCE MODELS

Čeprav je baltskim državam varnost zagotovljena v okviru Nata in z aktivnim sodelovanjem na ravni EU na področju varnostne ter obrambne politike, kar krepi varnost v baltski regiji, so Estonija, Latvija in Litva še vedno zelo ranljive za ruska dejanja ter posredovanja. Rusiji predstavljajo neposredno točko za stike z Natom in EU, zaradi česar so med najpomembnejšimi državami, v katerih Rusija preizkuša vzajemne zmogljivosti in čeznje pošilja strateška sporočila svojim »nasprotnikom«.Članek omogoča poglobljeno primerjavo varnostnih groženj, nacionalnih varnostnih strategij, obrambnih modelov, značilnih za zadevne države, in pričakovanj strateškega partnerstva baltskih držav.
Ključne besede: Baltske države, Nato, Rusija, obramba, varnost.

Although the Baltic countries are granted security guarantees within the NATO framework, as well as through active cooperation at the EU level in the field of security and defence policy, enhancing security in the Baltic Sea region, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are still very vulnerable to Russian actions and interventions. They constitute Russia’s direct point of contact with both NATO and the EU and are, therefore, among the primary subjects to the interests of Russia to test mutual capabilities and to send strategic messages to its “opponents”.
This article offers an in-depth comparison of the security threats, national security strategies, country-specific defence models, and expectations of strategic partnership of the Baltic countries.
Keywords: Baltic States, NATO, Russia, defence, security.

DOI: 10.33179/BSV.99.SVI.11.CMC.21.3.3
Uroš Lampret, Blaž Grilj
15 LET SLOVENSKEGA ČLANSTVA V NATU SKOZI PERSPEKTIVO SPREMINJAJOČEGA SE VARNOSTNEGA IN GEOPOLITIČNEGA OKOLJA
15 YEARS OF SLOVENIAN NATO MEMBERSHIP THROUGH THE LENS OF THE CHANGING GLOBAL SECURITY AND GEOPOLITICAL ENVIRONMENT

Nato leta 2019 praznuje svojo 70-letnico obstoja. V tem času se je spoprijel z raznovrstnimi varnostnimi in političnimi izzivi, ki so zaznamovali njegova delovanje in razvoj ter usmerjali tok sprememb in prilagoditev na dinamično varnostno okolje. Prav tako letos tudi Republika Slovenija praznuje 15 let svojega članstva v zavezništvu. Od prvotne hladnovojne vloge zavezništva pa do danes se je mednarodno varnostno okolje temeljito spremenilo. Zavezništvo se je okrepilo ter razširilo z novimi članicami, ni več stroge blokovske delitve med vzhodom in zahodom, varnostno okolje pa so zaznamovali nove grožnje ter tudi ostanki starih. Republika Slovenija je leta 2004 postala enakopravna članica zavezništva in tako prevzela del odgovornosti za zagotavljanje skupne varnosti. Kot polnopravna članica Nata je Slovenija prispevala ter vplivala na ključne odločitve in zaveze, sprejete v okviru zavezništva v preteklih 15 letih. Še vedno pa se spoprijema z izzivi izpolnjevanja nekaterih skupaj sprejetih zavez, med katerimi so gotovo najodmevnejši tisti, ki zadevajo višino izdatkov za obrambo. Hkrati lahko ugotovimo, da so širše varnostne in geopolitične spremembe pomembno vplivale tudi na varnost in obrambno politiko Republike Slovenije ter na nacionalni razvoj zmogljivosti in načrtovanja. Kot ugotavljata avtorja, kljub spremenjenemu varnostnemu okolju oziroma prav zaradi njega Nato ostaja najustreznejši okvir za celostno zagotavljanje obrambe Republike Slovenije.
Ključne besede: Nato, Slovenija, obramba, varnostno okolje, prilagoditev.

The year 2019 marks the 70th anniversary of NATO; furthermore, 2019 also marks 15 years of Slovenian membership of the Alliance. NATO has faced a diverse array of security and political challenges throughout its history, which have guided a constant adaptation of its defence posture and working practices. Since the initial Cold War role of the Alliance the international security environment has changed significantly. The Alliance has been enlarged and strengthened by new members, the strict block divisions between the East and the West have ceased to exist, and the security environment has evolved through new and old security threats. Slovenia became an equal member of the Alliance in 2004, when it took up an important share of responsibility for common security. As a full member of NATO, Slovenia has contributed to and influenced key Alliance decisions. Nevertheless, Slovenia still struggles to fulfil some of the commitments it made, particularly when it comes to defence spending. At the same time we may note that broader security and geopolitical changes have also had a significant impact on the security and defence policy, as well as on the development of national capabilities and defence planning of the Republic of Slovenia. As noted by the authors, in spite of the changes in the international security environment or, even more, particularly because of them, NATO remains perhaps more than ever before the most appropriate framework for the comprehensive defence of the Republic of Slovenia.
Keywords: NATO, Slovenia, defence, security environment, adaptation.

DOI: 10.33179/BSV.99.SVI.11.CMC.21.3.4
Marko Čehovin
15 LET REPUBLIKE SLOVENIJE V NATU – KRITIČNI POGLED NA OBRAMBNI SISTEM
15 YEARS OF THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA IN NATO – A CRITICAL VIEW ON DEFENCE SYSTEM

Kmalu po osamosvojitvi, še bolj izrazito pa po vstopu v Nato, je bilo vprašanje obrambe in zagotavljanja varnosti v Sloveniji postavljeno na stran. Pozabilo se je, da je vojska temeljni element državnosti in da smo bili Slovenci z oboroženo silo večkrat v zgodovini prisiljeni (o)braniti svoj obstoj. Pomanjkljivo financiranje je v kombinaciji s pomanjkljivim delovanjem kadrovskega sistema vsako leto potiskalo obrambni sistem v spiralo iskanja končnega dna. V zavezništvu smo si z neizpolnjevanjem zavez o višini in strukturi obrambnih izdatkov v zadnjih letih zapravili velik del kredibilnosti.
Slovenija je z vstopom v Nato zelo veliko pridobila. V geopolitičnem smislu se je (ponovno) pozicionirala kot del najrazvitejšega sveta. Največji prispevek članstva je kolektivna varnost, kar ima več multiplikativnih učinkov, tudi ekonomske. Obramba je danes veliko cenejša, kot bi bila sicer. Slovenija je po 15 letih članstva v Natu še vedno razpeta med mirovnim idealizmom in realizmom, ki zgodovinsko izraža, da potrebuje zaveznike. Obrambni sistem je treba prenoviti, preoblikovati in povezati v celoto ter uresničiti to, kar je bilo že večkrat ugotovljeno. Politične elite pa morajo te izzive prepoznati, voditi in usmerjati.
Ključne besede: Obrambni sistem, Nato, kritična analiza, reforme.

Shortly after Independence, and even more profoundly after joining NATO, the issue of defence and security in Slovenia was set aside. It has been quickly forgotten that an army is a fundamental element of statehood, and that several times in history Slovenes have been forced to defend their existence with an armed force. “Budgetary malnutrition”, in combination with malfunctioning human resource management, has pushed the defence system into a spiral quest for the lowest point. By failing to fulfil its commitments on the level and structure of defence spending, Slovenia has lost much of its credibility in the Alliance in recent years.
Slovenia gained a great deal by joining NATO. Geopolitically it has (re)positioned itself as part of the most developed world. The most significant benefit of membership is collective security, which has brought manifold effects, including economic ones; defence is much cheaper today than it would be if Slovenia were not a member of the Alliance. After fifteen years of NATO membership, Slovenia is still divided between peace idealism and realism that historically confirms that allies are required. The defence system needs to be renovated, transformed and integrated, and solutions that have been repeatedly already identified must be implemented. The role of the political elites is to recognize, lead and guide these challenges.
Keywords: Defence system, NATO, critical analysis, reforms.

DOI: 10.33179/BSV.99.SVI.11.CMC.21.3.5
Branimir Furlan, Zoran Barjaktarević
NATO IN SLOVENIJA 15 LET POZNEJE: KAKO USPEŠNE SO BILE NAPOVEDI IZDATKOV ZA OBRAMBO
NATO AND SLOVENIA 15 YEARS ON: HOW ACCURATE WERE PROJECTIONS ABOUT DEFENCE EXPENDITURE

Finančne posledice članstva v Natu so bile pred letom 2004 predmet razprave o razlogih za članstvo Slovenije v zavezništvu. Zato so se oblikovale ocene, na podlagi katerih so različni avtorji in ustanove napovedovali finančne obveznosti ter obrambne izdatke nove članice. Avtorja tega prispevka na podlagi primerjave ocen in stanja po 15 letih ugotavljata, kako uspešne so bile te napovedi. Prepoznavata objektivne okoliščine, na podlagi katerih se je izoblikovala (ne)uspešna napoved. Pri tem ugotavljata boljšo kakovost opredeljevanja obrambnih izdatkov kot prispevkov za Nato. Obenem opozarjata na nevarnost napačnega razumevanja resničnega zmanjšanja obrambnih izdatkov v Sloveniji kot posledice članstva.
Ključne besede: Obrambni izdatki, finančni prispevki, članstvo v Natu.

The financial consequences of NATO membership had been a subject of debate in the reasons for Slovenian accession to the Alliance before 2004. In order to provide projections of financial obligations and defence expenditure of a new NATO member, some authors and institutions had developed appropriate financial assessments. Based on an analysis of the available sources the authors of this article try to find out how accurate those projections were. They recognize objective circumstances responsible for more or less accurate projections, observing a higher quality of assessments about future defence expenditure than those dealing with financial contributions to NATO budget. Among other messages they call for attention in avoiding possible wrong conclusions that the actual reduction of defence budget that had happened in reality is not a consequence of NATO membership as some projected.
Keywords: Defence expenditure, financial contributions, NATO membership.

DOI: 10.33179/BSV.99.SVI.11.CMC.21.3.6
Alija Kožljak
KO MAJHNO POSTANE VELIKO – SLOVENIJA IN NJENIH PETNAJST LET V NATU
WHEN SMALL BECOMES BIG – FIFTEEN YEARS OF SLOVENIA IN NATO

Prispevek analizira članstvo Slovenije v Natu z zunanjega, zlasti regionalnega, vidika. Konceptualni okvir temelji na teoretičnih izhodiščih mednarodnih odnosov, ki pomagajo razumeti dogodke, povezane s procesi vključevanja v Nato. Metodologija za analizo je predvsem kvalitativna raziskava z nekaterimi primarnimi in sekundarnimi viri.
Besedilo prispeva k razpravam, ali majhne države zagotavljajo stalno varnost v zavezništvu. Zato preučuje primer Slovenije pri njenih prizadevanjih, da bi bila zanesljiva članica Nata. Pri tem obravnava njen trud in njeno vlogo v evro-atlantskih prizadevanjih držav Zahodnega Balkana.
Obravnava tudi vprašanje, koliko Slovenija pravzaprav sledi svojim nacionalnim interesom, prispeva k uresničevanju ambicij sosednjih držav glede Nata in krepi regionalno stabilnost, pri čemer je njena podlaga velika organizacija.
Po nekaterih predhodnih trditvah je v prispevku na kratko opisana pot vključevanja, ki jo je Slovenija opravila v obdobju od razpada Jugoslavije do vstopa v Nato. Avtor se nato osredotoči na njeno delovanje v soseščini, nazadnje pa na kratko oriše tudi vlogo Slovenije kot zagovornice in podpornice regije.
Prispevek se konča z ugotovitvijo, da Slovenija kljub svoji majhnosti in obsegu delovanja zagotavlja določene zmogljivosti, zaradi katerih je ugledna članica zavezništva.
Ključne besede: Slovenija, Nato, regija, Balkan, članstvo.

This paper analyzes Slovenia’s membership of NATO from an external, rather regional perspective. The conceptual context is based on theories of international relations, simplifying the understanding of developments related to the NATO integration processes. The methodology used for this analysis is mainly qualitative research, by means of several primary and secondary sources.
In this context, the paper contributes to debates on whether small states serve as consistent security providers in the Alliance; hence, it examines Slovenia’s case in its efforts to be a reliable member of the Alliance. Correspondingly, it studies Slovenia’s attempts and its role in the Euro-Atlantic efforts of the Western Balkan countries.
Likewise, the paper further examines to what extent, using the large organization as a platform, Slovenia pursues its own national interests, contributes to achieving the NATO ambitions of neighbouring countries, and strengthens regional stability.
After some preliminary arguments, the paper briefly describes Slovenia’s integration path, from Yugoslavia to NATO. It then elaborates Slovenian engagements in the neighbourhood, before attempting to provide a short illustration of the role of Slovenia as an advocate of the region.
The paper concludes that, despite its size and scope, Slovenia provides specific capacities that have verified the country as a respected member of the Alliance.
Keywords: Slovenia, NATO, region, Balkan, membership.

DOI: 10.33179/BSV.99.SVI.11.CMC.21.3.7
Andrej Osterman
SLOVENSKA VOJSKA 15 LET PO VSTOPU REPUBLIKE SLOVENIJE V NATO
THE SLOVENIAN ARMED FORCES 15 YEARS AFTER THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA JOINED NATO

Republika Slovenija je 15 let članica Nata. Članstvo v zavezništvu je veliko prispevalo h kakovostnemu razvoju Slovenske vojske. S sodelovanjem v mednarodnih operacijah in na misijah prispeva k mednarodni varnosti. Pred vstopom v Nato in po njem se Slovenska vojska prilagaja in preoblikuje glede na novonastale razmere ter varnostne izzive, tako da se lahko učinkovito odzove. Sodeluje na mednarodnih vojaških vajah in jih organizira ter deluje v Natovih predstavništvih, poveljstvih in enotah. Natova odvračalna drža krepi zavezništvo in zahteva učinkovito odzivanje na nove vire ogrožanja. Varnostno okolje se hitro spreminja, pri tem pa hibridne in kibernetske grožnje postajajo vse nevarnejše. Proces dolgotrajne prilagoditve Nata zahteva od članic pripravljenost za odzivanje na vse morebitne vire ogrožanja v krogu 360 stopinj. Republika Slovenija aktivno sodeluje tudi v projektih pametne obrambe, konceptu povezanih sil in konceptu vodilne države. Obrambni proračun se je po letih padanja spet začel zviševati, kar bo v naslednjih letih lahko pozitivno vplivalo na razvoj vojaških zmogljivosti za nacionalne potrebe in potrebe zavezništva. Članstvo v Natu je za Republiko Slovenijo še vedno najučinkovitejša in najracionalnejša rešitev zagotavljanja nacionalne varnosti, vendar mora država nositi tudi solidaren del bremena.
Ključne besede: Nato, Slovenska vojska, vojaške zmogljivosti, odvračalna drža, prilagajanje.

The Republic of Slovenia has been a NATO member for 15 years. Its NATO membership has significantly contributed to the quality development of the Slovenian Armed Forces (SAF), which has made a contribution to international security by taking part in international operations and missions. Before and after joining NATO, the SAF has adapted and transformed in view of the newly created settings and security challenges in a way to respond to them effectively. It has participated in and organized multinational military exercises, and has been operating within NATO representations, commands and units. NATO's deterrence posture strengthens the Alliance and requires an effective response to new sources of threat. The security environment is changing rapidly with hybrid and cyber threats becoming increasingly dangerous. NATO's long-term adaptation process requires members to respond to all potential sources of threat with a 360-degree approach. The Republic of Slovenia is also actively involved in the Smart Defence project, the Connected Forces Initiative and the Framework Nations Concept. The years-long decline in the defence budget has been reversed, which can, in the upcoming years, have a positive impact on the development of military capabilities for national needs and for the needs of the Alliance. For the Republic of Slovenia, NATO membership is still the most effective and rational solution to ensure its national security; however, the nation should lend solidarity by taking its share of the burden.
Keywords: NATO, Slovenian Armed Forces, military capabilities, deterrence posture, adaptation.

DOI: 10.33179/BSV.99.SVI.11.CMC.21.3.8
Alojz Šteiner
SLOVENSKA VOJAŠKA POT V ZAVEZNIŠTVO
SLOVENIA'S MILITARY PATH TO THE ALLIANCE

Leta 2019, ko Severnoatlantsko zavezništvo oziroma Nato praznuje 70-letnico svojega obstoja, v Sloveniji zaznamujemo 15-letnico članstva. Pri tem je treba izpostaviti še dve obletnici, in sicer 25 let od začetkov mednarodnega vojaškega sodelovanja Slovenske vojske in 10. obletnico, odkar je bila sprejeta deklaracija o izpolnjevanju pogojev vojske za celovito integracijo v zavezništvo. Poleg tega ima slovenska vojaška pot v zavezništvo še nekaj drugih zanimivosti in posebnosti, ki jih predstavljamo v prispevku.
Razvojna pot Slovenske vojske, pridruževanje, integracija, polnopravno članstvo, tranzicija, transformacija.
In 2019, while the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is celebrating the 70th anniversary of its existence, Slovenia is celebrating the 15th anniversary of membership of it. Two more anniversaries must also be highlighted: namely the 25th anniversary of the beginning of international military cooperation by the Slovenian Armed Forces, and the 10th anniversary of the adoption of the declaration on the fulfilment of the conditions for the army to be fully integrated into the Alliance. In addition, the Slovenian military path to the Alliance has several other interesting facts and special features that are presented in this article. These include the relatively short transition from the army consisting solely of a military reserve and later a conscript army, to a professional army with a voluntary reserve; the accelerated and incomplete process of functional professionalization; and the successful integration into NATO, followed by rather irresponsible abandonment of the commitments given to the Alliance with regard to financial investments and capability building.
Keywords: Development path of the Slovenian Armed Forces, accession, integration, full membership, transition, transformation.

DOI: 10.33179/BSV.99.SVI.11.CMC.21.3.9
Neil Grayston
SPREMINJANJE IN RAZVOJ SLOVENSKE VOJSKE – POGLED IZ TUJINE
THE REFORM AND EVOLUTION OF THE SLOVENIAN ARMED FORCES – A VIEW FROM ABROAD

Republika Slovenija je članica zveze Nato 15 let. Med pripravami na članstvo v Natu je morala Slovenska vojska opraviti korenito spremembo, in sicer preoblikovanje iz teritorialne obrambe v vojsko, ki lahko prispeva k Natovim misijam. Spremembe so postale še toliko nujnejše po odločitvi vlade leta 2002, da se ukine naborništvo in v celoti uvede poklicna vojska.
Spremenjena struktura sil Slovenske vojske je bila potrjena leta 2003, torej pred pridružitvijo Slovenije Natu leta 2004. Slovenska vojska se je v prvih petih letih članstva v Natu kljub nekaterim izzivom razvijala v pravo smer in izdatki za obrambo so se sorazmerno večali. V naslednjih petih letih pa je gospodarska kriza, ki je prizadela večino držav članic Nata, še zlasti negativno vplivala na nadaljnji razvoj Slovenske vojske, kar se je odražalo v občutnem zmanjšanju sredstev za obrambo.
Danes, po 15 letih članstva v Natu, si Slovenska vojska še ni opomogla po varčevalnih ukrepih na obrambnem področju. Poraba znaša približno en odstotek BDP in ne zadostuje za podporo načrtov Slovenske vojske glede sil, zaradi česar ta ne more učinkovito prispevati k Natu. Nujna je odločitev o velikosti in obliki Slovenske vojske v prihodnosti, ki bi ustrezala načrtom za prihodnje obrambne izdatke.
Ključne besede: Nato, Slovenija, profesionalizacija, obrambno načrtovanje, obrambni izdatki, misije, struktura sil, demokratični nadzor.

The Republic of Slovenia has been a member of NATO for 15 years. In preparing for NATO membership the Slovenian Armed Forces (SAF) were required to prepare for radical change, from a territorial defence force to one that could contribute to NATO missions. The need for change became even more significant after the government decision in 2002 to end conscription and move to a fully professional SAF.
A revised force structure for the SAF was agreed in 2003, prior to Slovenia joining NATO in 2004. Progress in developing the SAF in the first five years of NATO membership, while encountering a number of challenges, showed a positive trend, with a commensurate increase in defence expenditure. In the following five years the economic crisis which affected most NATO countries had a particularly damaging effect on the continued development of the SAF, with very severe reductions in defence expenditure.
Today, after 15 years of NATO membership, the SAF has still not recovered from the cuts made in defence spending. Spending remains close to 1.0% of GDP and is inadequate to support the force plans of the SAF. The SAF is unable to make an effective contribution to NATO and a decision needs to be made on the future size and shape of the SAF which matches plans for future defence expenditure.
Keywords: NATO, Slovenia, professionalization, defence planning, defence expenditure, missions, force structure, democratic control.

DOI: 10.33179/BSV.99.SVI.11.CMC.21.3.10
Andrzej Fałkowski
ANIMUS IN CONSULENDO LIBER – V PREMIŠLJEVANJU SVOBODEN DUH
ANIMUS IN CONSULENDO LIBER – A MIND UNFETTERED IN DELIBERATION

Preteklo je 15 let, odkar se je Slovenija z nekaterimi drugimi državami pridružila Natu. Tako politične elite kot navadni državljani razumejo organizacijo Severnoatlantske pogodbe kot zaščitnico. Toda pred kom ali čim nas mora Nato zaščititi? Zakaj so se Slovenija in druge države iz nekdanjega komunističnega bloka pridružile zavezništvu? Kakšno je njegovo resnično stanje? Namen tega prispevka je pogled na Nato z vidika izkušenj, pridobljenih v 12 letih na treh različnih položajih v Natovem poveljstvu.
Ključne besede: Nato, soglasje, član, diplomacija.

It has been 15 years since Slovenia, alongside several other countries, joined NATO. Both political elites and ordinary citizens see the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as a protector. However, what does NATO have to protect us from? Why did Slovenia and the other countries from the former communist hemisphere join the Alliance? What are the realities of the organization? This contribution proposes a look at NATO from the perspective of 12 years of experience serving in three different positions at NATO HQ.
Keywords: NATO, consensus, member, diplomacy.