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Sodobni vojaški izzivi - leto 2017

Viktor Potočnik
PROTIOKLEPNI BOJ V SLOVENSKI VOJSKI
ANTI-ARMOUR COMBAT IN THE SLOVENIAN ARMED FORCES

Povzetek: Od 90. let prejšnjega stoletja je v opremljanju z oklepno tehniko v oboroženih silah zaznati spremembe. Obseg tankovskih zmogljivosti se je zmanjšal, hkrati pa se povečujejo zmogljivosti tako imenovanega lahkega oklepa in oklepne zaščite v enotah bojne podpore in enotah zagotovitve bojnega delovanja. Dejansko se je delež oklepa na bojišču povečal. V doktrinarnem smislu Nato ne namenja veliko pozornosti protioklepnemu boju, v Vojaški doktrini SV (2006) pa protioklepnega boja sploh ne najdemo. V članku je opredeljen protioklepni boj v doktrinarnem smislu in analizirane so protioklepne zmogljivosti sodobnih vojsk. Na podlagi tega je predstavljenih nekaj ugotovitev in priporočil o stanju protioklepnega boja v SV.
Ključne besede: Protioklepni boj, protioklepni oborožitveni sistemi, Slovenska vojska, koeficient bojne učinkovitosti.
 
Since the 1990's, several changes have occurred in armoured formations. The scope of tank capabilities has been reduced, while at the same time the presence of light armour and armour in combat support and combat service support units has increased. The percentage of armour in the battlefield has thus increased. Nevertheless, doctrine-wise anti-armour combat is not a high priority for NATO and it is not even mentioned in the Slovenian Armed Forces doctrine (2006). The article deals with anti-armour combat from a doctrine perspective, and provides an analysis of anti-armour capabilities of modern armed forces. Building on this, it puts forward some conclusions and recommendations for the Slovenian Armed Forces.
Keywords: Anti-armour doctrine, anti-armour weapon systems, Slovenian Armed Forces, combat effectiveness coefficient.

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Alojz Šteiner
PRISPEVKI ZA ANALIZO IZZIVOV IN PRIHODNJEGA RAZVOJA TER OBSEGA VOJSKE V SLOVENIJI
CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE ANALYSIS OF CHALLENGES, FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND SCOPE OF ARMED FORCES IN SLOVENIA

Povzetek: V prispevku predstavljam razmišljanja in ugotovitve iz preučevanja tranzicije in transformacije Slovenske vojske glede na prihodnje izzive in razvoj. Konec leta 2016 je vlada sprejele sklepe Strateškega pregleda obrambe, ob tem pa so bile izvedene še druge analize in študije. Strokovna javnost je svoj pogled na vzdržljivosti obrambno-vojaškega in varnostnega sistema ter vlogo rezerve pri tem predstavila v posebnem zborniku in tako prispevala k analizi stanja in pogleda na prihodnji razvoj. Leta 2017 so bili sprejeti zavezniški cilji zmogljivosti za Republiko Slovenijo in njeno vojsko. Poleg tega v Sloveniji že drugo leto poteka posodabljanje normativne ureditve. Prav tako poteka intenzivno dopolnjevanje strateških in razvojnih dokumentov obrambnega resorja, vključno s študijami in razpravami ter programiranjem prihodnje strukture in obsega Slovenske vojske. Vsi ti procesi so usmerjeni v nadaljnje preoblikovanje, vendar v trenutnih okvirih in brez sistemskih sprememb. Pri tem je pojav transformacije vojske skoraj v celoti izginil iz razprav o prihodnjih izzivih. V politični in strokovni javnosti je zaslediti tudi razmišljanja o nujnosti nove vizije in razvojni poti, z bolj radikalnim spreminjanjem in posegi v sistemske, normativne in tudi strukturne rešitve. Čeprav smo v Sloveniji sredi procesov projektiranja in programiranja ter normativnega urejanja obrambno-vojaškega sistema, menim, da je potrebna ponovna oziroma vmesna analiza. Opozarjam na nujnost premisleka o še vedno odprtih vprašanjih in dodajam poglede na to, kateri so ti izzivi.
Ključne besede: Analiza izzivov in prihodnjega razvoja, vizija sprememb, obseg in struktura Slovenske vojske, preživetje, tranzicija, transformacija.

In the paper, I present my thoughts and findings from the study of the transition and transformation of the Slovenian Armed Forces in the light of future challenges and development. At the end of 2016, the government adopted the decisions of the Strategic Defence Review, while other analyses and studies have also been carried out. The professional public presented its view on the sustainability of the defence, military and security system and the role of the reserve therein in a special journal, thus contributing to the analysis of the situation and the view on the future development. In 2017, NATO Capability Targets for the Republic of Slovenia and its armed forces were adopted. In addition, the modernization of the normative regulation in Slovenia has been underway for the second year. Also, intensive complementing of strategic and developmental documents of the defence sector is in progress, including studies and debates, as well as the programming of the future structure and scope of the Slovenian Armed Forces. All these processes are oriented towards further transformation; however, within the current scope and without systemic changes. With this in mind, the phenomenon of transformation of armed forces has disappeared almost completely from the discussions on future challenges. In the political and professional public, there are also reflections on the urgent need for a new vision and development path, with more radical changes to and interventions in the systemic, normative and structural solutions. Although Slovenia finds itself in the midst of the processes of designing and programming as well as normatively regulating its defence and military system, I believe that a re-analysis or an interim analysis is needed. I want to draw attention to the urgency of reflection on the still open questions and to add my view on what these challenges might be.
Keywords: Analysis of the challenges and future development, vision of changes, scope and structure of the Slovenian Armed Forces, survival, transition, transformation.

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Vinko Vegič
VOJAŠKA STRATEŠKA REZERVA IN TRANSFORMACIJA SODOBNIH OBOROŽENIH SIL
MILITARY STRATEGIC RESERVE AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF MODERN ARMED FORCES

Povzetek: V Sloveniji od sredine prejšnjega desetletja razvijamo koncept vojaške strateške rezerve, vendar se postavlja vprašanje glede njegove skladnosti s procesom transformacije sodobnih vojsk in glede izvedljivosti ter uporabnosti. Zaslediti je mogoče številne težave z vidika demografskega in širšega socialnega konteksta ter organizacijskega vidika. Zamisel o vojaški strateški rezervi ne sledi trendom količinskega in funkcionalnega preoblikovanja rezervnih sil, ki jih zasledimo v okviru širše transformacije sodobnih zahodnih vojsk. Z vidika značilnosti sodobnih konfliktov je učinkovitost zagotavljanja vojaške varnosti s konceptom vojaške strateške rezerve, ki temelji na naboru in mobilizaciji, vprašljiva. Nujna bi bila temeljita presoja ustreznosti koncepta vojaške strateške rezerve z vojaškega vidika. V nasprotnem lahko pride do večanja razlik med deklariranimi in v resnici dosegljivimi cilji.
Ključne besede: Rezervne sile, strateška rezerva, transformacija, Slovenska vojska, obrambno načrtovanje.

Abstract: The development of the concept of Military Strategic Reserve in Slovenia can be traced back into the middle of the past decade. However, a question arises about its consistency with the transformation process in the modern armed forces as well as about its feasibility and efficiency. There are several problems from the viewpoint of demographic and broader social context as well as from the organisational viewpoint. The idea of military strategic reserve does not follow the trends of quantitative and functional restructuring of reserve forces present in the broader transformation of modern western armed forces. As far as the characteristics of contemporary conflicts are concerned, the effectiveness of providing military security with the concept of a conscription- and mobilisation-based military reserve is questionable. In order to prevent the widening of the gap between declared and attainable goals, it would be necessary to thoroughly assess the appropriateness of the military strategic reserve concept from a military point of view.
Keywords: Reserve forces, strategic reserve, transformation, Slovenia Armed Forces, defence planning.

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Miha Šlebir
TOPOVI ALI MASLO? PRIMERJALNA ANALIZA OBRAMBNIH IZDATKOV REPUBLIKE SLOVENIJE
GUNS vs. BUTTER? COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SLOVENIA'S DEFENCE EXPENDITURE

Povzetek: Javnofinančne posledice gospodarske krize so večino držav članic zveze Nato vodile v bistveno zmanjšanje obrambnih izdatkov. Analiza je razkrila, da so v obdobju 2009–2015 obrambni izdatki Republike Slovenije padli najbolj med vsemi zaveznicami, ob tem pa je Slovenijo zaradi naraščajočega deleža izdatkov za osebje začela bremeniti vse bolj neuravnotežena struktura obrambne porabe. V prispevku sem potrdil domnevo o neustreznem kadrovskem obsegu slovenskih oboroženih sil glede na razpoložljive finančne vire. Analizo sem zasnoval na teoretično podkrepljeni premisi o vzročni povezanosti spremenljivk. S pomočjo bivariatne analize sem potrdil visoko pozitivno korelacijo med višino obrambnih izdatkov za osebje in kadrovskim obsegom oboroženih sil ter prek regresijske analize izsledke apliciral na načrtovano stanje slovenskega obrambnega sistema leta 2020. Ob tem sem ugotovil, da je neskladje med finančnimi viri in kadrovskim obsegom implicirano tudi v trenutno veljavnem srednjeročnem obrambnem programu in da doseganje kadrovskih in strukturno-finančnih ciljev ob predvideni stopnji rasti obrambnih izdatkov ni realno uresničljivo.
Ključne besede: Obrambni izdatki, izdatki za osebje, kadrovski obseg oboroženih sil, Slovenska vojska, bivariatna analiza.

Abstract: The effects of the economic crisis on public finances have led to significant reductions in defence spending in the majority of NATO member states. As revealed by the analysis of 2009–2015, the largest drop in defence expenditure occurred in the Republic of Slovenia, where a rising share of expenditure devoted to personnel led to an increased imbalance in the allocation of defence resources. In the article, I confirmed the hypothesis on inappropriate personnel strength of the Slovenian Armed Forces with regard to the available financial resources. I based the analysis on a theoretically supported premise about a causal relationship between variables. A bivariate analysis confirmed a strong positive correlation between the level of personnel expenditure and the overall personnel strength. Furthermore, I used a regression analysis to form an estimate on a 2020 desired end-state based on the acquired results. I concluded that the discrepancy between financial resources and the personnel strength is implied in the Medium-Term Defence Programme as well. I therefore assessed the currently valid medium term staff and financial structure goals as realistically unattainable.
Keywords: Defence expenditure, personnel expenditure, armed forces personnel strength, Slovenian Armed Forces, bivariate analysis.

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Roman Faganel, Dragomir Ćevriz
ANALITIČNI PRISTOP K NAČRTOVANJU VIROV IN SPREJEMANJU ODLOČITEV V OBRAMBNEM SISTEMU
ANALYTICAL APPROACH TO RESOURCE PLANNING AND DECISION MAKING IN THE DEFENCE SYSTEM

Povzetek: V prispevku opredeljujemo ožji koncept načrtovanja obrambnih virov (poudarek je na finančnih virih), ki temelji na dejanjih in rezultatih ter presega odločitve le na podlagi intuicije za doseganje boljših rezultatov pri odločanju, razporejanju in načrtovanju vojaških sredstev ter zmogljivosti. Viri v sodobnih vojaških organizacijah so omejeni in prav njihova načrtna/namenska dodelitev in racionalna izraba oziroma poraba predstavlja velik izziv sodobnega načrtovanja. Za doseganje optimalnih rezultatov je zelo pomembno razumevanje in poznavanje obstoječih virov, njihovo razporejanje in upravljanje znotraj vojaške organizacije. Nepravilno razporejeni viri prinašajo dodatne negativne posledice, kot so višji stroški, tehnološki zaostanek in zmanjševanje možnosti reševanja življenj. Z analitičnim pristopom upravljanja se oblikuje temeljna podlaga za raziskovanje vzrokov, procesov in pojavov odstopanj od načrtovanja virov skozi kratkoročna, srednjeročna in dolgoročna obdobja obrambnega načrtovanja. Predstavljena je metodologija procesa obrambnega načrtovanja, ki je osredotočena predvsem na kvantitativne pristope kot komplementarni del kvalitativnemu segmentu raziskovanja.
Ključne besede: Upravljanje virov, intuicija, analiza stroškov in koristi, ekonomska analiza, matematični analitični modeli, proces odločanja.

Abstract: In the article, we define a narrow concept of defence expenditure planning (with the emphasis on financial resources), which is based on the acts and results and exceeds intuition-based decisions to achieve better results in decision making, allocation and planning of military assets and capabilities. Resources in modern military organizations are limited and it is their planned or eligible allocation and rational use and consumption that represent a major challenge in modern planning. In order to achieve optimum results, understanding and awareness of the existing resources, their allocation and management within a military organization are crucial. Incorrectly allocated resources bring additional adverse consequences, such as higher costs, technological backlog and reduced possibility of saving lives. An analytical management approach creates the basis for exploring the causes, processes and phenomena of deviations from resource planning through short-term, medium-term and long-term defence planning periods. The article presents the methodology of the defence planning process, which is mainly focused on quantitative approaches as a complementary part of the qualitative research segment.
Keywords: Resource management, intuition, cost-benefit analysis, economic analysis, mathematical analytical models, decision-making process.

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Brane Bertoncelj
ZANESLJIVOST POSAMEZNIKA PRI DELOVANJU KRITIČNE INFRASTRUKTURE SODOBNE DRŽAVE
RELIABILITY OF INDIVIDUALS IN THE OPERATION OF A MODERN STATE CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

Povzetek: Vpliv posameznika na delovanje kritične infrastrukture je eden najbolj nezanesljivih in nepredvidljivih dejavnikov, zato pomeni zanjo stalno nevarnost, ki je ne smemo podcenjevati. Postavlja se vprašanje, koliko si prizadevati za še večji tehnološki napredek, da bi bile tehnološke in fizične sestavine kritične infrastrukture varnejše, po drugi strani pa, kako obravnavati posameznika pri upravljanju teh kompleksnih sistemov, saj ta postaja vse pomembnejši referent za njeno zanesljivo delovanje. Avtor predstavlja okvir modela vpliva posameznikove zanesljivosti na delovanje kritične infrastrukture sodobne države. Ugotavlja, da je zanesljivost posameznika v neobičajnih razmerah najbolj odvisna od stopnje njegove motiviranosti, usposobljenosti in pripadnosti organizaciji. Samovarovalne dejavnosti in preprečevanje možnosti za neobičajne razmere so pretežno prostovoljna dejanja, pri katerih sta najpomembnejša pojma pripravljenost in volja nekaj koristnega delati za organizacijo. Za zanesljivo delovanje posameznika moramo imeti vizijo in cilje.
Ključne besede: Posameznikova zanesljivost, kritična infrastruktura, tveganja, neobičajne razmere, odločanje.

Abstract: The influence of individuals on the operation of critical infrastructure is one of the most unreliable and unpredictable factors, and as such represents a constant threat that should not be underestimated. The question arises as to how much effort to invest in the technological progress in order to make technological and physical components of critical infrastructure safer, and, on the other hand, how to deal with individuals in the management of these complex systems, as individuals are becoming an increasingly important reference point to insure its reliable operation. The author presents the framework of the model of the influence individuals' reliability has on the operation of a modern state critical infrastructure. He notes that the reliability of an individual in unusual circumstances mostly depends on the level of their motivation, competence and affiliation to the organization. Self-protective activities and the prevention of possible abnormal circumstances are predominantly voluntary acts, where the most important concepts are willingness and the will to do something useful for the organization. A reliable performance of an individual requires a vision and goals.
Keywords: Reliability of individuals, critical infrastructure, risks, abnormal situation, decision making.