Uroš Tovornik
GEOSTRATEŠKI PREMIKI V SODOBNI EVROPI
GEOSTRATEGIC SHIFTS IN CONTEMPORARY EUROPE

Povzetek: Članek analizira geostrateške spremembe v današnji Evropi in svetu, ki smo jim priča od konca hladne vojne in predvsem od leta 2014 naprej. Klasična geopolitična dinamika se je vrnila in geopolitične teorije, kot sta osrčje in obrobje, so ponovno aktualne. Posledično se na svetovni oder vračajo tudi klasični geostrateški igralci. Članek analizira premike v treh evropskih državah in hkrati članicah Evropske unije, ki so v preteklih stoletjih krojile usodo Evrope, in sicer Francije, Nemčije in Združenega kraljestva. Geostrateške igre v Evropi so zmeraj imele globalne posledice, zato je bila v članku posebna pozornost namenjena tudi ZDA in Rusiji, njunim geopolitičnim interesom in geostrateškemu repozicioniranju. Sčasoma postaja jasno, da smo v tranziciji in na poti k oblikovanju nove evropske in svetovne strateške arhitekture. V tem smislu članek prepoznava nove porajajoče se geostrateške vektorje v Evropi. Ti lahko po eni strani opredeljujejo novo prihajajoče ravnotežje sil, po drugi strani pa možnost kolizije teh vektorjev. Pri slednjem smo lahko priče nepredvidljivim varnostnim posledicam tako za Evropo kakor tudi za ves svet.
Ključne besede: Geopolitika, geostrategija, Francija, Nemčija, Združeno kraljestvo, ZDA, Rusija.


This article shows how Europe and the world we are living in have changed drastically since the end of the Cold War, and especially since 2014. Classical geopolitical dynamics have resurfaced; theories, such as Heartland and Rimland, apply time and again. Consequently, classical players on the Europe and world stages are back in the game. The article analyses shifts in the following three traditional European powers and members of the European Union which have shaped the destiny of Europe during the last centuries: France, Germany and the United Kingdom. As strategic games in Europe have always had global dimensions, the United States and Russia’s influence and their geostrategic repositioning in Europe is also duly considered. The trend of a transition towards a new strategic architecture in Europe and in the world is ever more evident; the article thus also indicates the new emerging geostrategic vectors in Europe. On the one hand, they may indicate that a new balance is emerging, and on the other hand, that these vectors might collide. In case of the latter, we may face unprecedented security ramifications for Europe as well as for the entire world.
Keywords: Geopolitics, geostrategy, France, Germany, United Kingdom, United States, Russia.


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József Kis-Benedek
IZZIVI IRAŠKE, SIRSKE IN LIBIJSKE KRIZE ZA EVROPSKO UNIJO
CHALLENGES POSED BY THE IRAQI, SYRIAN AND LIBYAN CRISIS TO THE EUROPEAN UNION

Povzetek: Leta 2016 in predvsem 2017 so se na kriznih območjih Bližnjega vzhoda in Severne Afrike pojavile nekatere pozitivne spremembe. Spodbuden dogodek je bila uspešna akcija iraških in pešmerskih sil, ki jih podpira zahodna koalicija, proti tako imenovani Islamski državi, katere rezultat je bila izguba ozemlja ekstremističnih organizacij. Avtor analizira vidike kriznih območij, in sicer Iraka, Sirije in Libije, ki se nanašajo na posledice nerešenega vprašanja migrantov. Poleg kriznih območij predstavlja tudi situacijo tujih borcev in varnostna tveganja, ki jih povzroča njihova vrnitev v domovino. Navaja ukrepe, ki so jih sprejele EU in njene države članice, da bi preprečile in obvladale grožnjo, ki jo predstavlja vračanje tujih borcev.
Ključne besede: Bližnji vzhod, Evropska unija, migracije, Sirija, Libija, tuji borci.


In 2016, but mainly in 2017 some positive changes happened in the crisis areas of the Middle East and North Africa. Encouraging event was the successful actions of Iraqi and Peshmerga forces supported by the western coalition against the so called Islamic State, the result is the loss of territory of the extremist organizations. The author analyzes the perspectives of the crisis areas, namely Iraq, Syria and Libya, referring to the effects of the unresolved migrant issue. Besides the two crisis zones, he also presents the situation of foreign fighters and the security risks posed by their return. He specifies the measures taken by the EU and its member states to avert and handle the threat represented by returning foreign fighters.
Keywords: Middle-East, European Union, migration, Syria, Libya, foreign fighters.

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Laris Gaiser
GOSPODARSKA OBVEŠČEVALNA DEJAVNOST: NEIZOGIBNA IZBIRA
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE: AN INEVITABLE CHOICE

Povzetek: Od padca berlinskega zidu se je mednarodno okolje močno spremenilo. Globaliziran trg, v katerem so politična zavezništva vedno bolj krhka, je države prisilil v stalno gospodarsko vojno, v kateri pa prevladujejo le tiste, ki so v zadnjih letih oblikovale primeren sistem za izmenjavo informacij med javnim in zasebnim sektorjem. Gospodarska obveščevalna dejavnost je najbolj napredna teorija državnega upravljanja in predstavlja najprimernejši okvir za zasebno-javno sodelovanje v gospodarstvu. Namen članka je definirati pojem gospodarske obveščevalne dejavnosti in z analizo nekaterih tujih primerov dokazati, da so lahko države konkurenčne in varne le, če sprejmejo primerno gospodarsko-obveščevalno strategijo. Znotraj takšnega scenarija – čeprav predvideva zaščito gospodarskih interesov v Zakonu o Slovenski obveščevalno-varnostni agenciji – Slovenija nima celovite strategije za obrambo oziroma razvoj lastnih gospodarskih interesov prek strukturiranega sistema gospodarske obveščevalne dejavnosti. Oblikovalci politike bodo morali v prihodnosti upoštevati potrebo po reformi, ki bi zagotovila učinkovito in varno prihodnost slovenskemu gospodarstvu ter stabilnost državnega sistema.
Ključne besede: Gospodarska obveščevalna dejavnost, tajne službe, varnost, razvoj.


Abstract: In a post-Cold War environment countries live in a state of permanent economic warfare. Political alliances are more and more fragile, and while countries have compete every day on the global market in order to survive, only those with a structured system can prevail. Economic intelligence is the most advanced political and economic theory of state management, which also offers the framework for private-public cooperation. In defining economic intelligence and analyzing some examples of structured foreign systems, this article aims to show that in a globalized world countries can be competitive and safe only by adopting an economic intelligence strategy. Within such a scenario Slovenia, despite contemplating the defence of national economic interests through the Law on Slovenian Intelligence and Security Agency, has no comprehensive strategy to defend or promote its economic interests by a structured economic intelligence system. Policy makers must take into consideration reforms that could guarantee the country’s future economic efficiency and security.
Keywords: Economic intelligence, secret services, security, development.

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Ivana Boštjančič Pulk Johanna Suhonen, Kari Sainio
OCENJEVANJE NAČRTOVANJA IN IZVAJANJA MISIJ IN OPERACIJ EU: ŠTUDIJA PRIMERA EUFOR ALTHEA V BOSNI IN HERCEGOVINI
ASSESSING THE PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU MISSIONS AND OPERATIONS: CASE STUDY OF EUFOR ALTHEA IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

Povzetek: Evropska unija je vzpostavila tesne povezave z državami Zahodnega Balkana v zadnjih tridesetih letih, predvsem zato, da bi zagotovila stabilno, uspešno in dobro delujočo demokratično družbo pri vključitvi v Evropsko unijo. Tudi takratna Evropska varnostna in obrambna politika (EVOP), pozneje preimenovana v Skupno varnostno in obrambno politiko (SVOP), je bila umeščena visoko v političnem programu agende Evropske unije. Nato je predal operacijo Sfor v Bosni in Hercegovini, katere naloga je ohranjanje varnosti v regiji, in Evropska unija je 2. decembra 2004, devet let po koncu vojne, začela operacijo Althea. Eufor Althea je najdaljša vojaška operacija Skupne varnostne in obrambne politike v zgodovini do zdaj. V prispevku so opisani pridobljene izkušnje in vidiki ter posledice zmogljivosti načrtovanja operacije. Temelji na intervjujih, izvedenih v BiH, pri čemer se upoštevata tako Evropska unija kot zunanji vidik glede tematike. Na začetku naj bi bil okvir SVOP predviden kot kratkoročni instrument. Avtorica sklene, da mora Evropska unija, če želi učinkovito načrtovati in izvajati zapletene dolgoročne civilne in vojaške misije ter operacije, ustrezno prilagoditi mandate in svoj splošni pristop. Eufor Althea naj bi kljub dolgotrajni prisotnosti na terenu in brez znakov umika v bližnji prihodnosti dosegla uspeh, in sicer predvsem pri ohranjanju varnega okolja, spodbujanju človekovih pravic in enakosti spolov ter krepitvi zmogljivosti oboroženih sil Bosne in Hercegovine, prav tako naj bi k omenjenim dosežkom prispevala tudi zmogljivost načrtovanja.
Ključne besede: Evropska unija, Bosna in Hercegovina, SVOP, Eufor Althea, načrtovanje, učinkovitost.

Abstract: The European Union has established close links with the countries of the Western Balkans over the past thirty years, primarily with the aim of ensuring a stable, successful and well-functioning democratic society when joining the EU. The former European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP), later renamed the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), was placed high on the political agenda of the EU. NATO handed over the SFOR operation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, whose task was maintaining security in the region, and on 2 December 2004, nine years after the end of the war, the EU began its Operation Althea. EUFOR Althea is now the longest CSDP military operation in history. The article describes the acquired experience and the aspects and implications of the operation’s planning capacity. It is derived from interviews conducted in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and takes into account both the EU and external aspects of the topic. At the outset, the CSDP framework was envisaged as a short-term instrument. The article concludes that, in order to effectively plan and implement complex long-term civilian and military missions and operations, the EU must adapt its mandates and general approach. The article claims that EUFOR Althea, despite its long-term presence on the ground and without any signs of withdrawal in the near future, has achieved a certain success, especially in maintaining a secure environment, promoting human rights and gender equality, and strengthening the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Moreover, it claims that it was the planning capacity that contributed to these achievements.
Keywords: European Union, Bosnia and Herzegovina, CSDP, EUFOR Althea, planning, efficiency.

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Pika Šarf
ZAKONITOST NIZKOINTENZIVNIH KIBERNETSKIH OPERACIJ PO MEDNARODNEM PRAVU
LEGALITY OF LOW-INTENSITY CYBER OPERATIONS UNDER INTERNATIONAL LAW

Povzetek: Namen tega prispevka je obravnava mednarodnopravne ureditve nizkointenzivnih kibernetskih operacij. Čeprav mednarodna skupnost soglaša, da mednarodno pravo ureja ravnanje držav v kibernetskem prostoru, ni popolnoma jasno, kako se veljavna pravila mednarodnega prava uporabljajo v kibernetskem kontekstu. Večina pravnih strokovnjakov in strokovnjakov za nacionalno varnost ter vojaških strategov se je osredotočila na kibernetske operacije, ki dosegajo prag oboroženega spopada ali uporabe sile, vendar pa je le nekaj kibernetskih operacij v preteklosti ta prag tudi v resnici doseglo. Kibernetske operacije nižje intenzivnosti prevladujejo v kibernetskih odnosih med državami. Pri analizi skladnosti nizkointenzivnih kibernetskih napadov z veljavnimi pravili mednarodnega prava, zlasti z načelom ozemeljske suverenosti in načelom nevmešavanja, se članek opira na ugotovitve mednarodne skupine strokovnjakov, ki je pripravila t. i. Talinski priročnik uporabnega prava za področje kibernetskih operacij, in na mnenja drugih priznanih pravnih strokovnjakov.
Ključne besede: Kibernetska operacija, mednarodno pravo, načelo ozemeljske suverenosti, načelo neintervencije.

Abstract: The purpose of this article is to discuss the international law regulation of low-intensity cyber operations. Although the international community agrees that international law governs the conduct of states in cyberspace, it is not entirely clear how the existing norms of international law apply in the cyber context. The majority of legal scholars, as well as national security experts and military strategists, have focused on cyber operations that reach the threshold of either armed attack or use of force; however, few cyber operations in the past have actually risen to that level. Cyber operations of lower intensity prevail in state cyber interactions. While analyzing the accordance of low-intensity cyber operations with the existing norms of international law, in particular with the principle of state sovereignty and non-intervention, the article leans on the findings of the International Group of Experts which developed the Tallinn Manual on International Law Applicable to Cyber Operations, and writings of other recognized legal scholars.
Keywords: Cyber operation, international law, principle of territorial sovereignty, principle of non-intervention.

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Mitja Lipovšek
SLOVENSKO VOJAŠKO LETALSTVO
DANES IN ČEZ 20 LET
THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SLOVENIAN ARMED FORCES AIR FORCE:
NOW AND 20 YEARS IN THE FUTURE

Povzetek: V članku Slovensko vojaško letalstvo danes in čez 20 let nas avtor skozi kratko zgodovino vojaškega letalstva v Sloveniji popelje do trenutnih karakteristik slovenskega vojaškega letalstva. V nadaljevanju avtor s pomočjo dejstev slovenske vojaške obrambne politike in fokusiranja Slovenske vojske (SV) na bataljonske bojne skupine predlaga karakteristike v razvoju slovenskega vojaškega letalstva, ki morajo poleg vloge podpore bojnim enotam SV temeljiti na združenih funkcijah, kot so poveljevanje in kontrola (PINK); ognjena podpora; premik in manever; zaščita in vzdržljivost združenega bojevanja. Najpomembnejše vprašanje pa je, kaj je treba narediti, da bodo te karakteristike oblikovane na temeljih združenih funkcij. Vsekakor ima slovenska obrambna politika, podprta z vojaškim načinom mišljenja, pomembno vlogo pri postavitvi teh značilnosti.
Ključne besede: Slovensko vojaško letalstvo, karakteristike, zavezništvo, združene funkcije.


Abstract: This article, ‘The Characteristics of the Slovenian Armed Forces Air Force (SAFAF)1: now and 20 years in the future’, will lead us through a brief history towards the characteristics of today’s Slovenian Armed Forces Air Force. In addition, the article will, with the help of the Slovenian security policy through the Slovenian Armed Forces, whose focus is on Battalion Battle Groups, present the future characteristics of the Slovenian Armed Force Air Force, which, besides fulfilling a supporting role, should be built on a foundation of the joint functions – command and control (C2); intelligence; fire power movement and manoeuvres; protection; and sustainment – of joint warfare. However, the key question is: what decisions should be made and what action taken to get us from here to there? Slovenian security policy, supported by a military way of thinking, plays the key role, and is the enabler for building new future characteristics based on joint functions.
Keywords: Slovenian Armed Forces Air Force (SAFAF), characteristics, alliance, joint functions.


Abstract: 1 In this article, we will use the English term ‘Slovenian Armed Forces Air Force’, instead of ‘Slovenian Military Aviation’, because so far the decision-making policy personnel have still not clearly defined which translation would be more appropriate for the Slovenian case. Furthermore, even the Slovenian Armed Forces (SAF) itself does not clearly define this riddle. This can be correlated with this article’s underlying thesis of ‘still searching for an identity’. Which definition is more appropriate, the Air Force or Military Aviation, could be also be a topic for a further article.